When you missed rounds with me back in October, I started piecing it together in November and it came together in December. Sev has been implying you got sick at the full moon since last year, but I never thought anything of it and told him to mind his own business. I didn't suspect anything until you missed rounds. And Potter as good as told me that you wouldn't be there. It was as if he already knew something was going to happen. So the next time you were gone, Sev mentioned it so I decided to check the moon that night. I checked moon charts to compare to the month before. Then the night before Slughorn's party, I checked again when you were missing from the late afternoon class and on the way to dinner, I thought I had seen the nurse leading you across the grounds. It was a full moon that night too. I went up to the Astronomy Tower to double check, and when I was there I swore I heard howling a few miles off.

[When she finishes, she starts chewing nervously on her lower lip. The whole time she been talking, she had been watching Remus carefully. The neutral expression made her internally nervous, wondering wildly for a moment if she had taken several coincidences and led into believing Sev's wild theory. But really, the more she pressed on with her evidence, it didn't seem all that wild....]